Bolton vs Stoke City

Sat 10 Oct, 14:00

FT 1-2

AI Prediction

LOW 37%

Bolton

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 1-2

Predicted: 2-1. Winner: Incorrect

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: market, apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 1.93 - 1.07

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Bolton last 5 at home: 3W-0D-2L (scored 6, conceded 5)

6 Stoke City last 4 away: 1W-1D-2L (scored 5, conceded 9)

7 H2H (7): Stoke City lead 3-2 (2D), avg 2.4 goals, BTTS 29%

8 Bolton without: C. Forino-Joseph, L. Brunt (+2 more)

9 Stoke City without: A. Cresswell, S. Ingelsson (+4 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Bolton with an estimated 37% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.93-1.07 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — the market leans toward Stoke City, API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Bolton, so treat this one with extra caution. Bolton have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5 at home (scoring 6, conceding 5), while Stoke City have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 5, conceding 9). Stoke City lead the head-to-head 3-2 (with 2 draws), averaging 2.4 goals per game with both teams scoring in 29% of meetings. Bolton without: C. Forino-Joseph, L. Brunt (+2 more); Stoke City without: A. Cresswell, S. Ingelsson (+4 more).