Newcastle vs Everton

Mon 2 Nov, 20:00

AI Prediction

LOW 38%

Newcastle

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 1.38 - 0.83

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Newcastle last 4 at home: 2W-1D-1L (scored 7, conceded 6)

6 Everton last 5 away: 1W-3D-1L (scored 7, conceded 5)

7 H2H (10): Everton lead 5-3 (2D), avg 3.0 goals, BTTS 60%

8 Newcastle without: E. Jaouen, V. Livramento (+8 more)

9 Everton without: J. Grealish, J. Grealish

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Newcastle with an estimated 38% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.38-0.83 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Newcastle, so treat this one with extra caution. Everton lead the head-to-head 5-3 (with 2 draws), averaging 3.0 goals per game with both teams scoring in 60% of meetings. Newcastle have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 4 at home (scoring 7, conceding 6), while Everton have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 7, conceding 5). Newcastle without: E. Jaouen, V. Livramento (+8 more); Everton without: J. Grealish, J. Grealish.