Liverpool vs Arsenal

Sun 1 Nov, 16:30

AI Prediction

LOW 38%

Arsenal

Predicted Winner

1-2

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 0.55 - 0.91

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Liverpool last 5 at home: 3W-1D-1L (scored 10, conceded 8)

6 Arsenal last 5 away: 2W-2D-1L (scored 8, conceded 8)

7 H2H (10): Liverpool lead 3-2 (5D), avg 2.9 goals, BTTS 70%

8 Liverpool without: C. Bradley, H. Ekitike (+10 more)

9 Arsenal without: M. Dowman, B. Saka (+8 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Arsenal with an estimated 38% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (0.55-0.91 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — API-Football's model leans toward Liverpool, while the blended pick still favours Arsenal, so treat this one with extra caution. Liverpool have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 at home (scoring 10, conceding 8), while Arsenal have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 8, conceding 8). Liverpool lead the head-to-head 3-2 (with 5 draws), averaging 2.9 goals per game with both teams scoring in 70% of meetings. Liverpool without: C. Bradley, H. Ekitike (+10 more); Arsenal without: M. Dowman, B. Saka (+8 more).