Ipswich vs Nottingham Forest

Fri 23 Oct, 19:00

AI Prediction

LOW 40%

Nottingham Forest

Predicted Winner

2-3

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: poisson, apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 1.84 - 1.53

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Ipswich last 5 at home: 3W-0D-2L (scored 9, conceded 9)

6 Nottingham Forest last 3 away: 1W-1D-1L (scored 5, conceded 6)

7 H2H (10): Nottingham Forest lead 6-2 (2D), avg 2.8 goals, BTTS 50%

8 Ipswich without: S. Lukic, J. Taylor (+2 more)

9 Nottingham Forest without: Igor Jesus, N. Savona (+2 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Nottingham Forest with an estimated 40% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.84-1.53 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — the Poisson model leans toward Ipswich, API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Nottingham Forest, so treat this one with extra caution. Nottingham Forest lead the head-to-head 6-2 (with 2 draws), averaging 2.8 goals per game with both teams scoring in 50% of meetings. Ipswich have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5 at home (scoring 9, conceding 9), while Nottingham Forest have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 3 away from home (scoring 5, conceding 6). Ipswich without: S. Lukic, J. Taylor (+2 more); Nottingham Forest without: Igor Jesus, N. Savona (+2 more).