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Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal

Sun 18 Oct, 15:30

FT 0-1

🎯 AI Prediction

MEDIUM 55%

Arsenal

Predicted Winner

0-1

Predicted Score

Both Teams Score

Under

Over/Under 2.5

📊

Actual result: 0-1

Predicted: 0-1 — Exact score correct!

🔑 Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 0.00 - 0.46

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Nottingham Forest last 5 at home: 1W-1D-3L (scored 2, conceded 4)

6 Arsenal last 5 away: 4W-0D-1L (scored 8, conceded 5)

7 H2H (10): Arsenal lead 6-2 (2D), avg 2.4 goals, BTTS 20%

8 Nottingham Forest without: Igor Jesus, N. Savona (+6 more)

9 Arsenal without: P. Hincapie, W. Saliba (+6 more)

📝 Detailed Analysis

The model favours Arsenal with an estimated 55% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (0.00-0.46 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Arsenal, so treat this one with extra caution. Arsenal lead the head-to-head 6-2 (with 2 draws), averaging 2.4 goals per game with both teams scoring in 20% of meetings. Nottingham Forest have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 at home (scoring 2, conceding 4), while Arsenal have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 8, conceding 5). Nottingham Forest without: Igor Jesus, N. Savona (+6 more); Arsenal without: P. Hincapie, W. Saliba (+6 more).