Sunderland vs Brighton

Sat 10 Oct, 14:00

FT 0-2

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 55%

Brighton

Predicted Winner

1-3

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 0-2

Predicted: 1-3. Winner: Correct!

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 0.71 - 2.84

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Sunderland last 5 at home: 4W-0D-1L (scored 5, conceded 3)

6 Brighton last 4 away: 2W-1D-1L (scored 11, conceded 6)

7 H2H (3): Brighton lead 2-0 (1D), avg 0.7 goals, BTTS 0%

8 Sunderland without: D. Ballard, B. Brobbey (+6 more)

9 Brighton without: F. Azeez, E. Ferguson (+16 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Brighton with an estimated 55% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (0.71-2.84 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Brighton, so treat this one with extra caution. Brighton lead the head-to-head 2-0 (with 1 draw), averaging 0.7 goals per game with both teams scoring in 0% of meetings. Sunderland have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5 at home (scoring 5, conceding 3), while Brighton have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 11, conceding 6). Sunderland without: D. Ballard, B. Brobbey (+6 more); Brighton without: F. Azeez, E. Ferguson (+16 more).