Ipswich vs Fulham

Sat 10 Oct, 14:00

FT 2-1

AI Prediction

LOW 36%

Fulham

Predicted Winner

1-2

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 2-1

Predicted: 1-2. Winner: Incorrect

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 0.35 - 0.00

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Ipswich last 5 at home: 3W-0D-2L (scored 10, conceded 8)

6 Fulham last 4 away: 1W-2D-1L (scored 5, conceded 5)

7 H2H (10): Fulham lead 6-1 (3D), avg 2.9 goals, BTTS 70%

8 Ipswich without: I. Fatawu, I. Fatawu

9 Fulham without: T. Cairney, A. Robinson (+4 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Fulham with an estimated 36% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (0.35-0.00 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — API-Football's model leans toward Ipswich, while the blended pick still favours Fulham, so treat this one with extra caution. Fulham lead the head-to-head 6-1 (with 3 draws), averaging 2.9 goals per game with both teams scoring in 70% of meetings. Ipswich have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5 at home (scoring 10, conceding 8), while Fulham have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 5, conceding 5). Ipswich without: I. Fatawu, I. Fatawu; Fulham without: T. Cairney, A. Robinson (+4 more).