Hull City vs Everton

Sun 11 Oct, 13:00

FT 2-2

AI Prediction

LOW 45%

Everton

Predicted Winner

1-2

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 2-2

Predicted: 1-2. Winner: Incorrect

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 0.35 - 0.00

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Hull City last 3 at home: 1W-2D-0L (scored 2, conceded 0)

6 Everton last 5 away: 2W-2D-1L (scored 9, conceded 5)

7 H2H (7): Everton lead 4-1 (2D), avg 3.1 goals, BTTS 57%

8 Hull City without: I. Ansah, J. Butland (+18 more)

9 Everton without: V. Mykolenko, C. Norgaard (+4 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Everton with an estimated 45% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (0.35-0.00 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Everton, so treat this one with extra caution. Everton lead the head-to-head 4-1 (with 2 draws), averaging 3.1 goals per game with both teams scoring in 57% of meetings. Hull City have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 3 at home (scoring 2, conceding 0), while Everton have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 9, conceding 5). Hull City without: I. Ansah, J. Butland (+18 more); Everton without: V. Mykolenko, C. Norgaard (+4 more).