Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest

Sun 11 Oct, 13:00

FT 3-1

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 54%

Nottingham Forest

Predicted Winner

2-5

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 3-1

Predicted: 2-5. Winner: Incorrect

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 1.56 - 4.86

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Crystal Palace last 5 at home: 2W-0D-3L (scored 10, conceded 9)

6 Nottingham Forest last 4 away: 1W-1D-2L (scored 4, conceded 5)

7 H2H (10): Nottingham Forest lead 2-0 (8D), avg 1.8 goals, BTTS 70%

8 Crystal Palace without: A. Disasi, D. Henderson (+8 more)

9 Nottingham Forest without: Igor Jesus, N. Milenkovic (+6 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Nottingham Forest with an estimated 54% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.56-4.86 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Nottingham Forest, so treat this one with extra caution. Nottingham Forest lead the head-to-head 2-0 (with 8 draws), averaging 1.8 goals per game with both teams scoring in 70% of meetings. Crystal Palace have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5 at home (scoring 10, conceding 9), while Nottingham Forest have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 4, conceding 5). Crystal Palace without: A. Disasi, D. Henderson (+8 more); Nottingham Forest without: Igor Jesus, N. Milenkovic (+6 more).