Coventry vs Newcastle

Mon 12 Oct, 19:00

FT 4-1

AI Prediction

LOW 44%

Newcastle

Predicted Winner

1-2

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 4-1

Predicted: 1-2. Winner: Incorrect

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 0.00 - 3.08

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Coventry last 5 at home: 2W-0D-3L (scored 6, conceded 10)

6 Newcastle last 3 away: 2W-0D-1L (scored 4, conceded 4)

7 Coventry without: A. Amenda, T. Awoniyi (+12 more)

8 Newcastle without: A. Elanga, E. Jaouen (+12 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Newcastle with an estimated 44% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (0.00-3.08 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Newcastle, so treat this one with extra caution. Coventry have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5 at home (scoring 6, conceding 10), while Newcastle have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 3 away from home (scoring 4, conceding 4). Coventry without: A. Amenda, T. Awoniyi (+12 more); Newcastle without: A. Elanga, E. Jaouen (+12 more).