Chelsea vs Bournemouth

Sat 10 Oct, 14:00

FT 5-1

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 57%

Chelsea

Predicted Winner

4-3

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 5-1

Predicted: 4-3. Winner: Correct!

Key Factors

1 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

2 Poisson xG model: 4.26 - 2.66

3 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

4 Chelsea last 5 at home: 4W-1D-0L (scored 17, conceded 9)

5 Bournemouth last 5 away: 1W-2D-2L (scored 8, conceded 9)

6 H2H (9): Chelsea lead 5-0 (4D), avg 2.3 goals, BTTS 56%

7 Chelsea without: J. Gittens, E. Emegha (+2 more)

8 Bournemouth without: A. Adli, J. Araujo (+12 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Chelsea with an estimated 57% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (4.26-2.66 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The model and the market land within a couple of points of each other here, which reinforces the pick. Chelsea lead the head-to-head 5-0 (with 4 draws), averaging 2.3 goals per game with both teams scoring in 56% of meetings. Chelsea have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5 at home (scoring 17, conceding 9), while Bournemouth have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 8, conceding 9). Chelsea without: J. Gittens, E. Emegha (+2 more); Bournemouth without: A. Adli, J. Araujo (+12 more).