Aston Villa vs Brentford

Sat 10 Oct, 14:00

FT 2-2

AI Prediction

LOW 47%

Brentford

Predicted Winner

1-2

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 2-2

Predicted: 1-2. Winner: Incorrect

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 0.53 - 1.60

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Aston Villa last 5: 4W-0D-1L (scored 13, conceded 8)

6 Brentford last 5 away: 3W-2D-0L (scored 15, conceded 7)

7 H2H (10): Aston Villa lead 4-2 (4D), avg 3.0 goals, BTTS 60%

8 Aston Villa without: M. Cash, M. Cisse (+8 more)

9 Brentford without: K. Furo, A. Milambo (+14 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Brentford with an estimated 47% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (0.53-1.60 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Brentford, so treat this one with extra caution. Aston Villa lead the head-to-head 4-2 (with 4 draws), averaging 3.0 goals per game with both teams scoring in 60% of meetings. Aston Villa have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5 (scoring 13, conceding 8), while Brentford have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 15, conceding 7). Aston Villa without: M. Cash, M. Cisse (+8 more); Brentford without: K. Furo, A. Milambo (+14 more).