Arsenal vs Leeds

Sat 10 Oct, 11:30

FT 2-1

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 57%

Arsenal

Predicted Winner

3-0

Predicted Score

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 2-1

Predicted: 3-0. Winner: Correct!

Key Factors

1 Model below market fair probability by 11pp

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 0.89 - 0.35

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Arsenal last 5 at home: 3W-1D-1L (scored 11, conceded 5)

6 Leeds last 5 away: 2W-2D-1L (scored 8, conceded 8)

7 H2H (10): Arsenal lead 9-0 (1D), avg 3.2 goals, BTTS 40%

8 Arsenal without: W. Saliba, C. Tzolis (+6 more)

9 Leeds without: D. James, M. Joseph (+8 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Arsenal with an estimated 57% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (0.89-0.35 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The market is more confident in Arsenal than the model is — the blend sits 11 points below the market's fair price, making this a lower-conviction pick. Arsenal lead the head-to-head 9-0 (with 1 draw), averaging 3.2 goals per game with both teams scoring in 40% of meetings. Arsenal have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 at home (scoring 11, conceding 5), while Leeds have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 8, conceding 8). Arsenal without: W. Saliba, C. Tzolis (+6 more); Leeds without: D. James, M. Joseph (+8 more).