Nice vs Rennes

Fri 30 Oct, 18:00

AI Prediction

LOW 42%

Nice

Predicted Winner

3-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: market, apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 2.53 - 0.84

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Nice last 4 at home: 2W-2D-0L (scored 5, conceded 3)

6 Rennes last 5 away: 0W-2D-3L (scored 5, conceded 11)

7 H2H (10): Nice lead 5-4 (1D), avg 2.9 goals, BTTS 60%

8 Nice without: L. Abergel, M. Bombito (+8 more)

9 Rennes without: E. Lepaul, B. Samba (+2 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Nice with an estimated 42% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (2.53-0.84 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — the market leans toward Rennes, API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Nice, so treat this one with extra caution. Nice have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 4 at home (scoring 5, conceding 3), while Rennes have won 0, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 5, conceding 11). Nice lead the head-to-head 5-4 (with 1 draw), averaging 2.9 goals per game with both teams scoring in 60% of meetings. Nice without: L. Abergel, M. Bombito (+8 more); Rennes without: E. Lepaul, B. Samba (+2 more).