Marseille vs Toulouse

Sun 1 Nov, 19:45

AI Prediction

LOW 45%

Marseille

Predicted Winner

4-3

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: poisson disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 2.72 - 2.97

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Marseille last 4 at home: 1W-0D-3L (scored 7, conceded 9)

6 Toulouse last 4 away: 1W-3D-0L (scored 9, conceded 6)

7 Marseille without: D. Cornelius, D. Cornelius

8 Toulouse without: R. Messali, M. Niflore (+2 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Marseille with an estimated 45% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (2.72-2.97 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — the Poisson model leans toward Toulouse, while the blended pick still favours Marseille, so treat this one with extra caution. Marseille have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 4 at home (scoring 7, conceding 9), while Toulouse have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 9, conceding 6). Marseille without: D. Cornelius, D. Cornelius; Toulouse without: R. Messali, M. Niflore (+2 more).