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Lyon vs Nice

Sun 18 Oct, 18:45

FT 2-1

🎯 AI Prediction

MEDIUM 51%

Lyon

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

📊

Actual result: 2-1

Predicted: 2-1 — Exact score correct!

🔑 Key Factors

1 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

2 Poisson xG model: 3.64 - 0.00

3 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

4 Lyon last 5 at home: 3W-1D-1L (scored 12, conceded 6)

5 Nice last 5 away: 0W-2D-3L (scored 0, conceded 6)

6 H2H (10): Lyon lead 5-3 (2D), avg 2.8 goals, BTTS 50%

7 Lyon without: L. Openda, M. Ouedraogo (+4 more)

8 Nice without: L. Abergel, M. Bombito (+8 more)

📝 Detailed Analysis

The model favours Lyon with an estimated 51% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (3.64-0.00 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The model and the market land within a couple of points of each other here, which reinforces the pick. Lyon lead the head-to-head 5-3 (with 2 draws), averaging 2.8 goals per game with both teams scoring in 50% of meetings. Lyon have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 at home (scoring 12, conceding 6), while Nice have won 0, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 0, conceding 6). Lyon without: L. Openda, M. Ouedraogo (+4 more); Nice without: L. Abergel, M. Bombito (+8 more).