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Lorient vs Monaco

Sun 18 Oct, 15:15

FT 1-0

🎯 AI Prediction

LOW 48%

Monaco

Predicted Winner

0-1

Predicted Score

Both Teams Score

Under

Over/Under 2.5

📊

Actual result: 1-0

Predicted: 0-1 — Winner: Incorrect

🔑 Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 0.61 - 1.21

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Lorient last 4 at home: 2W-1D-1L (scored 9, conceded 5)

6 Monaco last 5 away: 4W-1D-0L (scored 9, conceded 5)

7 H2H (10): Lorient lead 3-2 (5D), avg 3.6 goals, BTTS 80%

8 Lorient without: N. Mbamba, N. Mbamba

9 Monaco without: P. Brunner, E. Dier (+4 more)

📝 Detailed Analysis

The model favours Monaco with an estimated 48% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (0.61-1.21 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Monaco, so treat this one with extra caution. Lorient have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 4 at home (scoring 9, conceding 5), while Monaco have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 9, conceding 5). Lorient lead the head-to-head 3-2 (with 5 draws), averaging 3.6 goals per game with both teams scoring in 80% of meetings. Lorient without: N. Mbamba, N. Mbamba; Monaco without: P. Brunner, E. Dier (+4 more).