Le Mans vs Toulouse

Fri 16 Oct, 18:45

FT 0-3

AI Prediction

LOW 39%

Le Mans

Predicted Winner

3-2

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 0-3

Predicted: 3-2. Winner: Incorrect

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: market disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 2.96 - 2.47

4 Le Mans last 5 at home: 1W-3D-1L (scored 7, conceded 7)

5 Toulouse last 3 away: 0W-3D-0L (scored 6, conceded 6)

6 Le Mans without: A. Bourabaa, E. Colas (+8 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Le Mans with an estimated 39% win probability, based on market odds and a Poisson xG model (2.96-2.47 goals). Not every signal agrees here — the market leans toward Toulouse, while the blended pick still favours Le Mans, so treat this one with extra caution. Le Mans have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 5 at home (scoring 7, conceding 7), while Toulouse have won 0, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 3 away from home (scoring 6, conceding 6). Le Mans without: A. Bourabaa, E. Colas (+8 more).