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Le Havre vs Auxerre

Sun 18 Oct, 15:15

FT 1-3

🎯 AI Prediction

LOW 40%

Le Havre

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

📊

Actual result: 1-3

Predicted: 2-1 — Winner: Incorrect

🔑 Key Factors

1 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

2 Poisson xG model: 0.91 - 0.91

3 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

4 Le Havre last 4 at home: 1W-1D-2L (scored 7, conceded 4)

5 Auxerre last 4 away: 1W-0D-3L (scored 5, conceded 12)

6 H2H (10): Le Havre lead 5-2 (3D), avg 2.5 goals, BTTS 70%

7 Le Havre without: E. Jelert, F. Mambimbi (+14 more)

8 Auxerre without: A. Diousse, S. Fofana (+14 more)

📝 Detailed Analysis

The model favours Le Havre with an estimated 40% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (0.91-0.91 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The model and the market land within a couple of points of each other here, which reinforces the pick. Le Havre lead the head-to-head 5-2 (with 3 draws), averaging 2.5 goals per game with both teams scoring in 70% of meetings. Le Havre have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 4 at home (scoring 7, conceding 4), while Auxerre have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 5, conceding 12). Le Havre without: E. Jelert, F. Mambimbi (+14 more); Auxerre without: A. Diousse, S. Fofana (+14 more).