Estac Troyes vs Marseille

Sun 11 Oct, 18:45

FT 0-2

AI Prediction

LOW 48%

Marseille

Predicted Winner

1-2

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 0-2

Predicted: 1-2. Winner: Correct!

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 1.04 - 0.00

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Estac Troyes last 4 at home: 1W-2D-1L (scored 8, conceded 9)

6 Marseille last 3 away: 0W-0D-3L (scored 1, conceded 7)

7 H2H (10): Marseille lead 7-1 (2D), avg 3.0 goals, BTTS 60%

8 Estac Troyes without: I. Boura, Y. Kone (+6 more)

9 Marseille without: D. Cornelius, P. Hojbjerg (+6 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Marseille with an estimated 48% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.04-0.00 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Marseille, so treat this one with extra caution. Marseille lead the head-to-head 7-1 (with 2 draws), averaging 3.0 goals per game with both teams scoring in 60% of meetings. Estac Troyes have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 4 at home (scoring 8, conceding 9), while Marseille have won 0, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 3 away from home (scoring 1, conceding 7). Estac Troyes without: I. Boura, Y. Kone (+6 more); Marseille without: D. Cornelius, P. Hojbjerg (+6 more).