Lille vs Le Havre

Sat 10 Oct, 15:15

FT 1-0

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 65%

Lille

Predicted Winner

3-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 1-0

Predicted: 3-1. Winner: Correct!

Key Factors

1 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

2 Poisson xG model: 2.81 - 1.05

3 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

4 Lille last 4 at home: 2W-1D-1L (scored 8, conceded 6)

5 Le Havre last 5 away: 1W-1D-3L (scored 6, conceded 8)

6 H2H (7): Lille lead 5-1 (1D), avg 2.7 goals, BTTS 43%

7 Lille without: H. Igamane, H. Igamane

8 Le Havre without: F. Mambimbi, L. Mpasi-Nzau (+10 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Lille with an estimated 65% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (2.81-1.05 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The model and the market land within a couple of points of each other here, which reinforces the pick. Lille lead the head-to-head 5-1 (with 1 draw), averaging 2.7 goals per game with both teams scoring in 43% of meetings. Lille have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 4 at home (scoring 8, conceding 6), while Le Havre have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 6, conceding 8). Lille without: H. Igamane, H. Igamane; Le Havre without: F. Mambimbi, L. Mpasi-Nzau (+10 more).