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Lens vs Lyon

Fri 9 Oct, 18:45

🎯 AI Prediction

LOW 37%

Lyon

Predicted Winner

1-2

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

🔑 Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: market, apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 0.00 - 1.06

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Lens last 5 at home: 3W-0D-2L (scored 9, conceded 6)

6 Lyon last 5 away: 2W-2D-1L (scored 6, conceded 4)

7 H2H (10): Lens lead 5-2 (3D), avg 2.6 goals, BTTS 50%

8 Lens without: J. Chavez, T. Hazard (+8 more)

9 Lyon without: R. Himbert, M. Niakhate (+6 more)

📝 Detailed Analysis

The model favours Lyon with an estimated 37% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (0.00-1.06 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — the market leans toward Lens, API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Lyon, so treat this one with extra caution. Lens lead the head-to-head 5-2 (with 3 draws), averaging 2.6 goals per game with both teams scoring in 50% of meetings. Lens have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5 at home (scoring 9, conceding 6), while Lyon have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 6, conceding 4). Lens without: J. Chavez, T. Hazard (+8 more); Lyon without: R. Himbert, M. Niakhate (+6 more).