Lecce vs Genoa

Sun 1 Nov, 17:00

AI Prediction

LOW 35%

Draw

Predicted Winner

0-0

Predicted Score

Both Teams Score

Under

Over/Under 2.5

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: market, poisson disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 1.04 - 0.52

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Lecce last 4 at home: 1W-0D-3L (scored 4, conceded 10)

6 Genoa last 4 away: 0W-0D-4L (scored 1, conceded 7)

7 H2H (10): Genoa lead 5-2 (3D), avg 2.4 goals, BTTS 50%

8 Lecce without: M. Berisha, L. Coulibaly (+10 more)

9 Genoa without: L. Venturino, M. E. Ellertsson (+4 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Draw with an estimated 35% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.04-0.52 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — the market leans toward Genoa, the Poisson model leans toward Lecce, while the blended pick still favours Draw, so treat this one with extra caution. Genoa lead the head-to-head 5-2 (with 3 draws), averaging 2.4 goals per game with both teams scoring in 50% of meetings. Lecce have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 4 at home (scoring 4, conceding 10), while Genoa have won 0, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 1, conceding 7). Lecce without: M. Berisha, L. Coulibaly (+10 more); Genoa without: L. Venturino, M. E. Ellertsson (+4 more).