Lazio vs Cagliari

Sun 1 Nov, 14:00

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 65%

Lazio

Predicted Winner

3-0

Predicted Score

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Key Factors

1 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

2 Poisson xG model: 2.25 - 0.75

3 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

4 Lazio last 5 at home: 3W-2D-0L (scored 12, conceded 7)

5 Cagliari last 5 away: 3W-0D-2L (scored 6, conceded 9)

6 H2H (10): Lazio lead 8-0 (2D), avg 2.3 goals, BTTS 40%

7 Lazio without: A. Furlanetto, A. Gudmundsson (+6 more)

8 Cagliari without: M. Felici, R. Idrissi (+2 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Lazio with an estimated 65% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (2.25-0.75 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The model and the market land within a couple of points of each other here, which reinforces the pick. Lazio lead the head-to-head 8-0 (with 2 draws), averaging 2.3 goals per game with both teams scoring in 40% of meetings. Lazio have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5 at home (scoring 12, conceding 7), while Cagliari have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 6, conceding 9). Lazio without: A. Furlanetto, A. Gudmundsson (+6 more); Cagliari without: M. Felici, R. Idrissi (+2 more).