Torino vs Monza

Fri 23 Oct, 18:45

AI Prediction

LOW 46%

Torino

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Key Factors

1 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

2 Poisson xG model: 1.86 - 1.41

3 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

4 Torino last 5 at home: 2W-0D-3L (scored 4, conceded 6)

5 Monza last 5 away: 1W-2D-2L (scored 7, conceded 9)

6 H2H (8): Torino lead 4-1 (3D), avg 2.3 goals, BTTS 63%

7 Torino without: E. Ilkhan, F. Israel (+6 more)

8 Monza without: M. Pessina, J. Ziolkowski (+8 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Torino with an estimated 46% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.86-1.41 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The model and the market land within a couple of points of each other here, which reinforces the pick. Torino lead the head-to-head 4-1 (with 3 draws), averaging 2.3 goals per game with both teams scoring in 63% of meetings. Torino have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5 at home (scoring 4, conceding 6), while Monza have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 7, conceding 9). Torino without: E. Ilkhan, F. Israel (+6 more); Monza without: M. Pessina, J. Ziolkowski (+8 more).