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Udinese vs Lecce

Sun 18 Oct, 10:30

FT 0-3

🎯 AI Prediction

LOW 44%

Udinese

Predicted Winner

1-0

Predicted Score

Both Teams Score

Under

Over/Under 2.5

📊

Actual result: 0-3

Predicted: 1-0 — Winner: Incorrect

🔑 Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: poisson disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 0.62 - 0.62

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Udinese last 5 at home: 2W-1D-2L (scored 5, conceded 5)

6 Lecce last 4 away: 1W-0D-3L (scored 2, conceded 6)

7 H2H (10): Udinese lead 5-3 (2D), avg 2.2 goals, BTTS 50%

8 Udinese without: J. Abankwah, V. Bayo (+10 more)

9 Lecce without: I. Ilic, M. Berisha (+4 more)

📝 Detailed Analysis

The model favours Udinese with an estimated 44% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (0.62-0.62 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — the Poisson model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Udinese, so treat this one with extra caution. Udinese lead the head-to-head 5-3 (with 2 draws), averaging 2.2 goals per game with both teams scoring in 50% of meetings. Udinese have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 at home (scoring 5, conceding 5), while Lecce have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 2, conceding 6). Udinese without: J. Abankwah, V. Bayo (+10 more); Lecce without: I. Ilic, M. Berisha (+4 more).