Frosinone vs Sassuolo

Fri 16 Oct, 18:45

FT 4-2

AI Prediction

LOW 46%

Frosinone

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 4-2

Predicted: 2-1. Winner: Correct!

Key Factors

1 Model above market fair probability by 9pp

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 2.32 - 0.93

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Frosinone last 5 at home: 4W-0D-1L (scored 11, conceded 5)

6 Sassuolo last 4 away: 0W-1D-3L (scored 6, conceded 9)

7 H2H (9): Sassuolo lead 4-2 (3D), avg 2.7 goals, BTTS 56%

8 Frosinone without: F. Grillitsch, F. Grillitsch

9 Sassuolo without: D. Boloca, J. Idzes (+10 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Frosinone with an estimated 46% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (2.32-0.93 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The model sees more value here than the market does — its estimate for Frosinone runs 9 points above the market's fair price. Sassuolo lead the head-to-head 4-2 (with 3 draws), averaging 2.7 goals per game with both teams scoring in 56% of meetings. Frosinone have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5 at home (scoring 11, conceding 5), while Sassuolo have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 6, conceding 9). Frosinone without: F. Grillitsch, F. Grillitsch; Sassuolo without: D. Boloca, J. Idzes (+10 more).