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Fiorentina vs Como

Sun 18 Oct, 13:00

FT 1-3

🎯 AI Prediction

MEDIUM 55%

Como

Predicted Winner

1-2

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

📊

Actual result: 1-3

Predicted: 1-2 — Winner: Correct!

🔑 Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 0.58 - 2.42

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Fiorentina last 5 at home: 2W-1D-2L (scored 9, conceded 7)

6 Como last 5 away: 2W-1D-2L (scored 9, conceded 8)

7 H2H (5): Como lead 3-2 (0D), avg 2.8 goals, BTTS 60%

8 Fiorentina without: F. Parisi, R. Sottil (+6 more)

9 Como without: A. Diao, M. Kean (+2 more)

📝 Detailed Analysis

The model favours Como with an estimated 55% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (0.58-2.42 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Como, so treat this one with extra caution. Fiorentina have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 at home (scoring 9, conceding 7), while Como have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 9, conceding 8). Como lead the head-to-head 3-2 (with 0 draws), averaging 2.8 goals per game with both teams scoring in 60% of meetings. Fiorentina without: F. Parisi, R. Sottil (+6 more); Como without: A. Diao, M. Kean (+2 more).