Sassuolo vs AC Milan

Sun 11 Oct, 16:00

FT 1-1

AI Prediction

LOW 44%

AC Milan

Predicted Winner

2-3

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 1-1

Predicted: 2-3. Winner: Incorrect

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: poisson, apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 2.29 - 1.72

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Sassuolo last 5 at home: 3W-1D-1L (scored 10, conceded 8)

6 AC Milan last 5 away: 2W-2D-1L (scored 9, conceded 9)

7 H2H (10): Sassuolo lead 4-3 (3D), avg 3.7 goals, BTTS 60%

8 Sassuolo without: D. Boloca, J. Idzes (+14 more)

9 AC Milan without: A. Saelemaekers, A. Saelemaekers

Detailed Analysis

The model favours AC Milan with an estimated 44% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (2.29-1.72 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — the Poisson model leans toward Sassuolo, API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours AC Milan, so treat this one with extra caution. Sassuolo have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 at home (scoring 10, conceding 8), while AC Milan have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 9, conceding 9). Sassuolo lead the head-to-head 4-3 (with 3 draws), averaging 3.7 goals per game with both teams scoring in 60% of meetings. Sassuolo without: D. Boloca, J. Idzes (+14 more); AC Milan without: A. Saelemaekers, A. Saelemaekers.