Lecce vs Bologna

Sun 11 Oct, 13:00

FT 1-2

AI Prediction

LOW 44%

Bologna

Predicted Winner

0-1

Predicted Score

Both Teams Score

Under

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 1-2

Predicted: 0-1. Winner: Correct!

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 1.03 - 0.00

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Lecce last 5 at home: 3W-1D-1L (scored 11, conceded 10)

6 Bologna last 3 away: 0W-0D-3L (scored 0, conceded 3)

7 H2H (10): Bologna lead 7-0 (3D), avg 3.0 goals, BTTS 50%

8 Lecce without: M. Berisha, N. Stulic (+2 more)

9 Bologna without: E. Holm, S. Mbangula (+4 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Bologna with an estimated 44% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.03-0.00 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — API-Football's model leans toward Lecce, while the blended pick still favours Bologna, so treat this one with extra caution. Bologna lead the head-to-head 7-0 (with 3 draws), averaging 3.0 goals per game with both teams scoring in 50% of meetings. Lecce have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 at home (scoring 11, conceding 10), while Bologna have won 0, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 3 away from home (scoring 0, conceding 3). Lecce without: M. Berisha, N. Stulic (+2 more); Bologna without: E. Holm, S. Mbangula (+4 more).