Lazio vs Monza

Sun 11 Oct, 13:00

FT 3-1

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 60%

Lazio

Predicted Winner

3-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 3-1

Predicted: 3-1. Exact score correct!

Key Factors

1 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

2 Poisson xG model: 2.75 - 0.92

3 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

4 Lazio last 5 at home: 2W-2D-1L (scored 8, conceded 7)

5 Monza last 5 away: 1W-2D-2L (scored 7, conceded 10)

6 H2H (6): Lazio lead 4-0 (2D), avg 2.7 goals, BTTS 50%

7 Lazio without: M. Cancellieri, A. Furlanetto (+10 more)

8 Monza without: P. Ciurria, O. Forson (+8 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Lazio with an estimated 60% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (2.75-0.92 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The model and the market land within a couple of points of each other here, which reinforces the pick. Lazio lead the head-to-head 4-0 (with 2 draws), averaging 2.7 goals per game with both teams scoring in 50% of meetings. Lazio have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 at home (scoring 8, conceding 7), while Monza have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 7, conceding 10). Lazio without: M. Cancellieri, A. Furlanetto (+10 more); Monza without: P. Ciurria, O. Forson (+8 more).