Genoa vs Fiorentina

Sat 10 Oct, 13:00

FT 2-1

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 52%

Fiorentina

Predicted Winner

1-2

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 2-1

Predicted: 1-2. Winner: Incorrect

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 1.38 - 3.22

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Genoa last 5 at home: 2W-1D-2L (scored 7, conceded 8)

6 Fiorentina last 3 away: 1W-1D-1L (scored 6, conceded 8)

7 H2H (10): Fiorentina lead 5-0 (5D), avg 2.8 goals, BTTS 70%

8 Genoa without: Amorim, L. Colombo (+10 more)

9 Fiorentina without: A. Atta, F. Parisi (+4 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Fiorentina with an estimated 52% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.38-3.22 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Fiorentina, so treat this one with extra caution. Fiorentina lead the head-to-head 5-0 (with 5 draws), averaging 2.8 goals per game with both teams scoring in 70% of meetings. Genoa have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 at home (scoring 7, conceding 8), while Fiorentina have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 3 away from home (scoring 6, conceding 8). Genoa without: Amorim, L. Colombo (+10 more); Fiorentina without: A. Atta, F. Parisi (+4 more).