Cagliari vs Juventus

Sun 11 Oct, 18:45

FT 1-1

AI Prediction

LOW 47%

Juventus

Predicted Winner

0-1

Predicted Score

Both Teams Score

Under

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 1-1

Predicted: 0-1. Winner: Incorrect

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: poisson, apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 0.52 - 0.52

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Cagliari last 5 at home: 2W-1D-2L (scored 3, conceded 3)

6 Juventus last 3 away: 2W-0D-1L (scored 4, conceded 3)

7 H2H (10): Juventus lead 7-1 (2D), avg 2.7 goals, BTTS 60%

8 Cagliari without: M. Felici, R. Idrissi (+4 more)

9 Juventus without: J. Boga, J. Ekhator (+12 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Juventus with an estimated 47% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (0.52-0.52 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — the Poisson model leans toward a draw, API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Juventus, so treat this one with extra caution. Juventus lead the head-to-head 7-1 (with 2 draws), averaging 2.7 goals per game with both teams scoring in 60% of meetings. Cagliari have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 at home (scoring 3, conceding 3), while Juventus have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 3 away from home (scoring 4, conceding 3). Cagliari without: M. Felici, R. Idrissi (+4 more); Juventus without: J. Boga, J. Ekhator (+12 more).