NK Slaven Belupo vs Istra 1961

Fri 30 Oct, 17:00

AI Prediction

LOW 37%

Istra 1961

Predicted Winner

2-3

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: market, poisson, apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 2.11 - 2.03

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 NK Slaven Belupo last 4 at home: 3W-0D-1L (scored 9, conceded 7)

6 Istra 1961 last 5 away: 2W-1D-2L (scored 10, conceded 6)

7 H2H (10): Istra 1961 lead 4-3 (3D), avg 2.4 goals, BTTS 50%

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Istra 1961 with an estimated 37% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (2.11-2.03 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — the market leans toward NK Slaven Belupo, the Poisson model leans toward NK Slaven Belupo, API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Istra 1961, so treat this one with extra caution. NK Slaven Belupo have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 4 at home (scoring 9, conceding 7), while Istra 1961 have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 10, conceding 6). Istra 1961 lead the head-to-head 4-3 (with 3 draws), averaging 2.4 goals per game with both teams scoring in 50% of meetings.