HNK Rijeka vs NK Varazdin

Sun 1 Nov, 14:00

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 51%

HNK Rijeka

Predicted Winner

3-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 2.78 - 1.06

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 HNK Rijeka last 3 at home: 2W-0D-1L (scored 7, conceded 2)

6 NK Varazdin last 5 away: 2W-2D-1L (scored 7, conceded 3)

7 H2H (10): NK Varazdin lead 6-2 (2D), avg 1.9 goals, BTTS 40%

Detailed Analysis

The model favours HNK Rijeka with an estimated 51% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (2.78-1.06 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours HNK Rijeka, so treat this one with extra caution. NK Varazdin lead the head-to-head 6-2 (with 2 draws), averaging 1.9 goals per game with both teams scoring in 40% of meetings. HNK Rijeka have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 3 at home (scoring 7, conceding 2), while NK Varazdin have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 7, conceding 3).