NK Slaven Belupo vs HNK Rijeka

Sun 11 Oct, 16:00

FT 4-1

AI Prediction

LOW 42%

HNK Rijeka

Predicted Winner

1-2

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 4-1

Predicted: 1-2. Winner: Incorrect

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: poisson, apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 1.05 - 0.35

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 NK Slaven Belupo last 3 at home: 2W-0D-1L (scored 5, conceded 5)

6 HNK Rijeka last 5 away: 1W-2D-2L (scored 7, conceded 5)

7 H2H (10): HNK Rijeka lead 6-1 (3D), avg 2.2 goals, BTTS 40%

Detailed Analysis

The model favours HNK Rijeka with an estimated 42% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.05-0.35 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — the Poisson model leans toward NK Slaven Belupo, API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours HNK Rijeka, so treat this one with extra caution. HNK Rijeka lead the head-to-head 6-1 (with 3 draws), averaging 2.2 goals per game with both teams scoring in 40% of meetings. NK Slaven Belupo have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 3 at home (scoring 5, conceding 5), while HNK Rijeka have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 7, conceding 5).