NK Osijek vs Istra 1961

Sat 10 Oct, 16:00

FT 1-3

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 51%

NK Osijek

Predicted Winner

3-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 1-3

Predicted: 3-1. Winner: Incorrect

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 2.82 - 0.56

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 NK Osijek last 4 at home: 3W-1D-0L (scored 9, conceded 3)

6 Istra 1961 last 5 away: 1W-3D-1L (scored 11, conceded 7)

7 H2H (10): Istra 1961 lead 7-1 (2D), avg 2.7 goals, BTTS 70%

Detailed Analysis

The model favours NK Osijek with an estimated 51% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (2.82-0.56 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours NK Osijek, so treat this one with extra caution. Istra 1961 lead the head-to-head 7-1 (with 2 draws), averaging 2.7 goals per game with both teams scoring in 70% of meetings. NK Osijek have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 4 at home (scoring 9, conceding 3), while Istra 1961 have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 11, conceding 7).