NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Varazdin

Sun 11 Oct, 13:00

FT 0-1

AI Prediction

LOW 37%

NK Varazdin

Predicted Winner

1-3

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 0-1

Predicted: 1-3. Winner: Correct!

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: poisson, apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 2.52 - 1.47

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb last 3 at home: 2W-1D-0L (scored 8, conceded 2)

6 NK Varazdin last 5 away: 2W-2D-1L (scored 11, conceded 6)

7 H2H (10): NK Lokomotiva Zagreb lead 4-3 (3D), avg 2.6 goals, BTTS 70%

Detailed Analysis

The model favours NK Varazdin with an estimated 37% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (2.52-1.47 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — the Poisson model leans toward NK Lokomotiva Zagreb, API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours NK Varazdin, so treat this one with extra caution. NK Lokomotiva Zagreb have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 3 at home (scoring 8, conceding 2), while NK Varazdin have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 11, conceding 6). NK Lokomotiva Zagreb lead the head-to-head 4-3 (with 3 draws), averaging 2.6 goals per game with both teams scoring in 70% of meetings.