HNK Hajduk Split vs Dinamo Zagreb

Sat 10 Oct, 13:00

FT 2-1

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 50%

HNK Hajduk Split

Predicted Winner

4-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 2-1

Predicted: 4-1. Winner: Correct!

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: market disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 4.29 - 0.63

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 HNK Hajduk Split last 5 at home: 4W-1D-0L (scored 13, conceded 2)

6 Dinamo Zagreb last 5 away: 2W-2D-1L (scored 12, conceded 6)

7 H2H (10): Dinamo Zagreb lead 6-2 (2D), avg 2.2 goals, BTTS 40%

Detailed Analysis

The model favours HNK Hajduk Split with an estimated 50% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (4.29-0.63 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — the market leans toward Dinamo Zagreb, while the blended pick still favours HNK Hajduk Split, so treat this one with extra caution. Dinamo Zagreb lead the head-to-head 6-2 (with 2 draws), averaging 2.2 goals per game with both teams scoring in 40% of meetings. HNK Hajduk Split have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5 at home (scoring 13, conceding 2), while Dinamo Zagreb have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 12, conceding 6).