Worcester City vs Chorley

Tue 20 Oct, 18:45

AI Prediction

LOW 40%

Chorley

Predicted Winner

1-2

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 0.56 - 0.93

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Worcester City last 4 at home: 1W-1D-2L (scored 3, conceded 6)

6 Chorley last 5 away: 2W-1D-2L (scored 6, conceded 8)

7 H2H (1): even, 1D, avg 2.0 goals, BTTS 100%

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Chorley with an estimated 40% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (0.56-0.93 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Chorley, so treat this one with extra caution. Worcester City have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 4 at home (scoring 3, conceding 6), while Chorley have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 6, conceding 8). All 1 of their last meetings have ended in a draw, averaging 2.0 goals per game with both teams scoring in 100% of meetings.