Liverpool vs Villarreal

Tue 20 Oct, 19:00

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 63%

Liverpool

Predicted Winner

3-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Key Factors

1 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

2 Poisson xG model: 2.94 - 0.98

3 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

4 Liverpool last 5 at home: 2W-2D-1L (scored 7, conceded 7)

5 Villarreal last 5 away: 1W-1D-3L (scored 7, conceded 8)

6 H2H (4): Liverpool lead 3-1 (0D), avg 2.8 goals, BTTS 25%

7 Liverpool without: C. Bradley, F. Chiesa (+12 more)

8 Villarreal without: N. Pepe, N. Pepe

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Liverpool with an estimated 63% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (2.94-0.98 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The model and the market land within a couple of points of each other here, which reinforces the pick. Liverpool lead the head-to-head 3-1 (with 0 draws), averaging 2.8 goals per game with both teams scoring in 25% of meetings. Liverpool have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 at home (scoring 7, conceding 7), while Villarreal have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 7, conceding 8). Liverpool without: C. Bradley, F. Chiesa (+12 more); Villarreal without: N. Pepe, N. Pepe.