Alvechurch vs Spalding United

Tue 20 Oct, 18:45

AI Prediction

LOW 41%

Alvechurch

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: market, apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 1.85 - 0.37

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Alvechurch last 5 at home: 2W-1D-2L (scored 8, conceded 4)

6 Spalding United last 5 away: 1W-2D-2L (scored 6, conceded 6)

7 H2H (6): Spalding United lead 3-1 (2D), avg 2.2 goals, BTTS 33%

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Alvechurch with an estimated 41% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.85-0.37 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — the market leans toward Spalding United, API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Alvechurch, so treat this one with extra caution. Spalding United lead the head-to-head 3-1 (with 2 draws), averaging 2.2 goals per game with both teams scoring in 33% of meetings. Alvechurch have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 at home (scoring 8, conceding 4), while Spalding United have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 6, conceding 6).