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Spalding United vs Bury Town

Tue 6 Oct, 18:45

🎯 AI Prediction

MEDIUM 52%

Spalding United

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

🔑 Key Factors

1 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

2 Poisson xG model: 3.70 - 0.00

3 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

4 Spalding United last 5 at home: 4W-1D-0L (scored 9, conceded 2)

5 Bury Town last 5 away: 3W-0D-2L (scored 11, conceded 11)

6 H2H (3): Spalding United lead 2-0 (1D), avg 2.7 goals, BTTS 100%

📝 Detailed Analysis

The model favours Spalding United with an estimated 52% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (3.70-0.00 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The model and the market land within a couple of points of each other here, which reinforces the pick. Spalding United lead the head-to-head 2-0 (with 1 draw), averaging 2.7 goals per game with both teams scoring in 100% of meetings. Spalding United have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5 at home (scoring 9, conceding 2), while Bury Town have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 11, conceding 11).