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Albania vs San Marino

Tue 6 Oct, 18:45

🎯 AI Prediction

HIGH 81%

Albania

Predicted Winner

7-0

Predicted Score

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

🔑 Key Factors

1 Model below market fair probability by 12pp

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 6.53 - 0.00

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Albania last 5 at home: 2W-0D-3L (scored 6, conceded 6)

6 San Marino last 4 away: 0W-0D-4L (scored 2, conceded 14)

7 H2H (3): Albania lead 3-0 (0D), avg 3.3 goals, BTTS 0%

📝 Detailed Analysis

The model favours Albania with an estimated 81% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (6.53-0.00 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The market is more confident in Albania than the model is — the blend sits 12 points below the market's fair price, making this a lower-conviction pick. Albania lead the head-to-head 3-0 (with 0 draws), averaging 3.3 goals per game with both teams scoring in 0% of meetings. Albania have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5 at home (scoring 6, conceding 6), while San Marino have won 0, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 2, conceding 14).