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Uzbekistan vs Syria

Thu 1 Oct, 14:00

🎯 AI Prediction

HIGH 70%

Uzbekistan

Predicted Winner

1-0

Predicted Score

Both Teams Score

Under

Over/Under 2.5

🔑 Key Factors

1 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

2 Poisson xG model: 5.56 - 1.23

3 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

4 Uzbekistan last 5 at home: 3W-1D-1L (scored 11, conceded 7)

5 Syria last 5 away: 2W-1D-2L (scored 8, conceded 6)

6 H2H (6): even, 2D, avg 1.2 goals, BTTS 17%

📝 Detailed Analysis

The model favours Uzbekistan with an estimated 70% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (5.56-1.23 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The model and the market land within a couple of points of each other here, which reinforces the pick. Uzbekistan have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 at home (scoring 11, conceding 7), while Syria have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 8, conceding 6). The head-to-head is even (2 win each, 2 draws in their last 6), averaging 1.2 goals per game with both teams scoring in 17% of meetings.