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Kyrgyzstan vs Lebanon

Sun 4 Oct, 14:00

🎯 AI Prediction

LOW 38%

Kyrgyzstan

Predicted Winner

1-0

Predicted Score

Both Teams Score

Under

Over/Under 2.5

🔑 Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 0.00 - 5.33

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Kyrgyzstan last 5 at home: 1W-2D-2L (scored 7, conceded 6)

6 Lebanon last 5 away: 3W-1D-1L (scored 14, conceded 2)

📝 Detailed Analysis

The model favours Kyrgyzstan with an estimated 38% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (0.00-5.33 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Kyrgyzstan, so treat this one with extra caution. Kyrgyzstan have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5 at home (scoring 7, conceding 6), while Lebanon have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 14, conceding 2).