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Russia vs Nigeria

Tue 6 Oct, 16:00

FT 3-3

🎯 AI Prediction

MEDIUM 66%

Russia

Predicted Winner

1-0

Predicted Score

Both Teams Score

Under

Over/Under 2.5

📊

Actual result: 3-3

Predicted: 1-0 — Winner: Incorrect

🔑 Key Factors

1 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

2 Poisson xG model: 2.94 - 0.25

3 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

4 Russia last 5 at home: 4W-1D-0L (scored 14, conceded 0)

5 Nigeria last 5 away: 1W-2D-2L (scored 8, conceded 9)

6 H2H (1): even, 1D, avg 2.0 goals, BTTS 100%

📝 Detailed Analysis

The model favours Russia with an estimated 66% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (2.94-0.25 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Russia have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5 at home (scoring 14, conceding 0), while Nigeria have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 8, conceding 9). All 1 of their last meetings have ended in a draw, averaging 2.0 goals per game with both teams scoring in 100% of meetings.