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Seychelles vs Sri Lanka

Wed 30 Sept, 12:00

🎯 AI Prediction

LOW 46%

Sri Lanka

Predicted Winner

0-1

Predicted Score

Both Teams Score

Under

Over/Under 2.5

🔑 Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 0.00 - 6.67

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Seychelles last 5 at home: 0W-1D-4L (scored 0, conceded 21)

6 Sri Lanka last 3 away: 2W-0D-1L (scored 7, conceded 3)

7 H2H (1): Sri Lanka lead 1-0 (0D), avg 3.0 goals, BTTS 0%

📝 Detailed Analysis

The model favours Sri Lanka with an estimated 46% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (0.00-6.67 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Sri Lanka, so treat this one with extra caution. Seychelles have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 5 at home (scoring 0, conceding 21), while Sri Lanka have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 3 away from home (scoring 7, conceding 3). Sri Lanka lead the head-to-head 1-0 (with 0 draws), averaging 3.0 goals per game with both teams scoring in 0% of meetings.