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Argentina vs Bolivia

Thu 1 Oct, 00:00

🎯 AI Prediction

HIGH 77%

Argentina

Predicted Winner

3-0

Predicted Score

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

🔑 Key Factors

1 Model below market fair probability by 11pp

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

4 Argentina last 5 at home: 5W-0D-0L (scored 14, conceded 5)

5 Bolivia last 3 away: 0W-0D-3L (scored 1, conceded 7)

6 H2H (8): Argentina lead 7-1 (0D), avg 3.4 goals, BTTS 25%

📝 Detailed Analysis

The model favours Argentina with an estimated 77% win probability, based on market odds and API-Football's statistical model. The market is more confident in Argentina than the model is — the blend sits 11 points below the market's fair price, making this a lower-conviction pick. Argentina lead the head-to-head 7-1 (with 0 draws), averaging 3.4 goals per game with both teams scoring in 25% of meetings. Argentina have won 5, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 5 at home (scoring 14, conceding 5), while Bolivia have won 0, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 3 away from home (scoring 1, conceding 7).