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China vs Tajikistan

Tue 6 Oct, 11:35

FT 0-1

🎯 AI Prediction

MEDIUM 52%

China

Predicted Winner

1-0

Predicted Score

Both Teams Score

Under

Over/Under 2.5

📊

Actual result: 0-1

Predicted: 1-0 — Winner: Incorrect

🔑 Key Factors

1 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

2 Poisson xG model: 0.56 - 0.00

3 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

4 China last 5 at home: 1W-1D-3L (scored 3, conceded 10)

5 Tajikistan last 3 away: 2W-0D-1L (scored 8, conceded 1)

6 H2H (2): China lead 1-0 (1D), avg 0.5 goals, BTTS 0%

📝 Detailed Analysis

The model favours China with an estimated 52% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (0.56-0.00 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The model and the market land within a couple of points of each other here, which reinforces the pick. China have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 at home (scoring 3, conceding 10), while Tajikistan have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 3 away from home (scoring 8, conceding 1). China lead the head-to-head 1-0 (with 1 draw), averaging 0.5 goals per game with both teams scoring in 0% of meetings.